Australian politics keeps coming back to one figure: Net Overseas Migration, usually shortened to NOM. Every major party now says it wants the number lower. If you are in Australia on a temporary visa, or planning to come, the debate itself matters less than which visa types are being lined up for change, and what you can do now to keep your options open.
NOM in plain terms
NOM counts people who arrive and stay in Australia for at least a year, then subtracts those who leave to live overseas. The year does not have to be continuous. Under the 12/16-month rule, anyone who spends a total of 12 months in Australia within a 16-month period is counted, even if they leave and come back in between.
The figure is not limited to visa holders. Returning Australian citizens and permanent residents are included, and so are New Zealanders who move here, and none of these groups can be managed through visa settings. Diplomats and their families are left out. Workers on the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, which brings Pacific workers for farm jobs that can last only a few months, may or may not be counted depending on how long they stay.
Where the numbers sit
NOM was about 301,000 in the year to December 2025. That is well down from roughly 556,000 in 2023, but still above government forecasts. Treasury expects it to fall to 225,000 by 2027–28, although its forecasts have come in below the actual figure in recent years.
In the 2024–25 financial year, arrivals counted in NOM broke down roughly like this:
| Group | Approximate arrivals |
|---|---|
| International students | 157,000 |
| Skilled visa holders (permanent and temporary) | 86,000 |
| Working holiday-makers | 78,000 |
| Returning Australian citizens | 64,000 |
| New Zealand citizens | 53,000 |
| Family visas | 24,000 |
| Humanitarian visas | Just under 15,000 |
What each party is proposing
| Party | Stated target | Main focus |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 225,000 by 2028, matching Treasury | Making sure temporary visa holders leave when their visas end, and slower processing of working holiday and skilled visas |
| Coalition | No firm figure; a cap tied to home building, possibly under 200,000 | One senator raised 180,000 with cuts to working holiday, student and some skilled visas, an idea other party figures distanced themselves from |
| One Nation | 130,000 | Graduate visas, international student numbers and a tighter skilled occupation list |
These are proposals and stated positions, not law. Actual migration has often ended up well away from official projections, so any target is better read as a signal of direction than a firm outcome.
What this could mean for your skills pathway
Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled visa list are getting the most political attention. That makes them more likely to see changes to processing times, eligibility rules or caps in the near term than family or humanitarian visas.
If you are relying on one of these visas as a stepping stone, it may be worth thinking about your longer-term route now. Many skilled visa pathways involve a skills assessment, and these often ask for a recognised qualification as well as proof of your work experience. People who have spent seasons working on farms during a working holiday, or alongside their studies, sometimes have real skills but nothing on paper to show for them.
Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) is one way to address that. You collect evidence such as references, payslips, photos of your work and any tickets or licences, and a Registered Training Organisation (RTO) compares it with the units of competency in a nationally recognised qualification. If it meets the requirements, the RTO issues the qualification. For someone with solid farm experience, a Certificate III in Agriculture or Certificate III in Production Horticulture could be a starting point to explore.
Staying ready while the debate plays out
- Follow policy detail as it is released rather than headlines or campaign promises.
- Keep records of every job you do in Australia: payslips, rosters, supervisor contacts and photos where allowed.
- Check official visa information on the Department of Home Affairs website before making plans.
- Find out which qualification matches the work you already do, so you know what evidence to gather.
Migration settings may tighten in some areas over the coming years. Having your experience documented and recognised could help you stay flexible, whatever the final numbers turn out to be.
